Overnight Points of Interest
2012 February 29 by Graham Parlane
Yesterday/Overnight
# A very strong NZ NBBO Business Confidence survey helped propel NZD/USD to 5 month highs of 0.8475.
# A larger than expected uptake of the ECB’s LTRO facility (EUR 529bln) kept the market in ‘risk on’ mode.
# The USD then surged after U.S. FED Chairman Bernanke’s testimony to congress. The chairman gave a tempered view of the economy, pouring cold water on the notion recent upbeat signs herald a stronger recovery. He noted that unless growth accelerated, the unacceptably high U.S. unemployment rate would not keep dropping. HOWEVER, he stopped short of signalling further Fed bond purchases, dashing the hopes of some traders in financial markets who were betting on more monetary stimulus.
# Gold and Silver collapsed post FED, Gold falling nearly 5% whilst silver dropped an incredible 10% at one stage.
# NZD,AUD,EUR all fell dramatically, with the NZD for example, now down more than 1 cent to 0.8365.
# Estimates of fourth-quarter U.S. economic growth were revised up to 3%, from an initial estimate of 2.8%.
# Chicago area PMI improved to 64.0, better than an expected reading of 61.0.
Ahead
# Australian building approvals
# China manufacturing PMI
# HSBC China final manufacturing PMI
# Euro area manufacturing PMI
# UK manufacturing PMI
# U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI
# U.S. unemployment claims
# Day 2 of Bernanke testimony to congress
Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities
Another confirming factor for USD weakness
2012 February 29 by Graham Parlane
We are seeing USD weakness prevalent everywhere right now. Gold and Silver moving strongly higher, EUR at 4 month highs, NZD and AUD pushing at the top of 1 month consolidations. In Asia earlier today we saw SGD (Singapore Dollar) gap higher and now this news on China
SYDNEY, Feb 29 (IFR) – The PBOC has set USD/CNY today at 6.2919, the lowest level (or highest yuan value) since the 2005 revaluation
This feels to me like the 2010 when I often noted “if it’s not one thing making new highs against the USD then it’s another”.
Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities
Overnight Points of Interest
2012 February 28 by Graham Parlane
Overnight
# U.S Feb consumer confidence rose to the highest level in a year at 70.8 from 61.5 in Jan and expectations of 63
# Richmond Fed’s Feb manufacturing index widely topped estimates as well printing at 20 versus 14 expected and 12 previous
# U.S Durable Goods Orders racked up their largest decline in three years, with both the headline and non-defence reading down more than 4%.
# A German Court challenged the “unconstitutional” nature of the small & opaque Parliamentary panel that decides EFSF aid.
# Crude declined for the 2nd day back to US$106 from US$110
# The Dow looks to finish near session highs up about 30 points making minor new 4 year highs in the process
# The ECB said Greek debt will temporarily be ineligible as collateral for loans after Standard & Poor’s yesterday cut Greece’s credit rating to “selective default.”
Ahead
# Australian January building consents
# Australian Jan retail sales
# NZ NBBO business survey
# ECB’s 3-year LTRO (big focus)
# Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies to congress
# U.S Beige Book
Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities
Overnight Points of Interest
2012 February 27 by Graham Parlane
Yesterday/Overnight
# NZ Trade figures showed underlying strength. Exports rose by 13.0% in the year to January, while underlying imports (excluding aircraft) rose by 12.8% over the same period. (an Air NZ aircraft purchase took the gloss off the headline number).
# U.S. data continued its recent encouraging tone with the number of U.S. home buyers who signed contracts to purchase previously owned homes growing last month to the highest level in 21 months. Further an index of pending sales of existing homes in January increased 2% versus a forecast a rise of 1%. (U.S housing has been at the very heart of the global problems of course, but the data of late certainly has a tinge of ‘green-shoots’ about it.)
# The Dow reversed earlier losses of about 100 points to currently trade up 40 points at new 4 year highs.
# Crude retreated from near US$110.00 snapping a strong week-long rally as it responded to news that Saudi Arabia has been increasing crude exports.
# German parliament voted to approve the second Greek bailout package
Ahead
# U.S. durable goods orders
Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities
Overnight Points of Interest
2012 February 26 by Graham Parlane
Overnight
# EUR was the best performing currency last week on the back of the Greek deal. Such was the strength, NZD/EUR fell from near 0.6400 to below 0.6200
# The JPY weakened dramatically Friday night with USD/JPY surging to 7 month highs at 81.25
# U.S consumer confidence hit one year highs with the US Feb Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index coming in at 75.3 v 73.0 expected
# US Jan New Home Supply 5.6 months, lowest since January 2006
# Crude continued its march higher on fears Iran will disrupt supply routes. WTI ended the week just shy of US$110 per barrel.
# IMF’s Lipton: IMF sees higher oil prices as new risk to world economy
# China’s Deputy Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said Saturday that reports China is prepared to lend 100 BLN USD to the IMF are “purely rumor”.
# Germany’s interior minister Hans-Peter Friedrich told Der Spiegel magazine that Greece’s chances of restoring its financial health would be greater outside the euro.
Ahead
# N.Z. Trade Balance
# Continuing G20 meetings
Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities
Overnight Points of Interest
2012 February 23 by Graham Parlane
Yesterday/Overnight
# German IFO data surprised positively moving up to 109.6 v 108.8 expected.
# The European Commission downgraded its expectations for Eurozone growth to -0.3% for the year ahead (warning! – imminent recession), from 0.5% previously.
# EUR/USD hit fresh 3 month highs
# The Dow reversed early losses as the U.S. Labour Department reported initial claims for unemployment benefits totalled 351,000 remaining at 4 year lows.
# US house prices rose 0.7%m/m in December v 0.1% expected.
# Australian PM Gillard has called a leadership vote for next Monday
# Silver finally took its lead from the recent surge in Gold, jumping 4% overnight.
# Crude (WTI) continued strongly higher, having now moved 11% higher over the last 12 days
Ahead
# RBA Governor Stevens appears before the House Economic Committee
# G20 meetings in Mexico
# Super 15 starts – Contrarian view from me, I’m picking the Crusaders to have ‘quake fatigue’ this year.
Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities
Overnight Points of Interest
2012 February 22 by Graham Parlane
Yesterday/Overnight
# GBP underperformed after the release of the BOE minutes which showed that at the last BoE meeting, two policy makers argued for £75b of further asset purchases (larger QE) as opposed to the £50b that was finally agreed.
# The JPY continued to weaken with USD/JPY rallying to 7 month highs of 80.40 (large stop losses had been rumoured above the physiological 80.00 mark).
# Gold continued its ascent since breaking out of a 2 week consolidation, rallying US$50 over the last two days.
# U.S. January existing home sales topped expectations with a 4.3% monthly gain, but December’s number was revised sharply lower, damping some of the positive sentiment.
# The composite PMI for the Eurozone slipped to 49.7 from 50.4 previously (above 50= expansion, below 50 = contraction).
Ahead
# German IFO business survey
# U.S weekly unemployment claims
# G20 meetings
# Bank of Canada interest rate review
Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities
Overnight Points of Interest
2012 February 21 by Graham Parlane
Yesterday/Overnight
# The Greek bailout program was passed. The details include, previous Greek government bondholders getting a haircut (losing!) 53% of their funds whilst Greece gets a new EUR 130bln in funding. The bailout comes with rather stringent terms however, including having a permanent team of monitors in Greece to ensure implementation of harsh austerity measures.
# Equity markets, after a modestly positive initial response, now look rather lukewarm with the Euro Stoxx and the Dow (after posting new 4 year highs) both down smalls.
# NZD and AUD underperformed overnight on cross selling against a surging EUR, which was buoyed of course by the E.U. ministers ratification of the Greek austerity program.
# The RBNZ survey of inflation expectations showed a sharp fall in the (key) 2 year measure with a fall from 2.8% to 2.5%. (The RBNZ firmly believes that expectations beget outcomes thus they will be very happy with the survey results).
# In the release of the minutes of their last meeting, the RBA reaffirmed that the economic outlook would have to weaken ‘materially’ for a further cut to take place (they’ve cut twice a total of 0.50% in recent months).
# Japan reported a 2nd consecutive monthly trade deficit (Jan), a phenomenon not seen for 30+ years.
# Crude (WTI) rallied 2.5% to 9 month highs of US$ 105.80, Gold and Silver were also up sharply.
Ahead
# NZ credit card data
# AU leading indicators
# AU wage cost index
# HSBC Flash Chinese Manufacturing PMI
# UK MPC meeting minutes
Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities
Overnight Points of Interest
2012 February 20 by Graham Parlane
Yesterday/Overnight
# NZ interest rates broke higher out of recent ranges as a combination of better NZ data recently, improving global risk appetite, and an RBA that failed to meet market expectations for a rate cut, has seen the market push expectations for RBNZ rate hikes higher.
# NZD/USD eked out new 5 month highs to 0.8425 with the NZ-US 10 year spread widening to over 210 points whilst NZD/AUD was almost back to recent highs as NZ-AU spreads also widened.
# Reports of an agreement on lowering the interest rates on Greece’s first EU/IMF bailout underpinned positive sentiment
# Italian industrial orders surprised on the upside coming in at +5.5% m/m v +0.4% expected
# European equity markets posted modest gains of 0.5 to 1.0% to close near 7 month highs on optimism a Greek deal is imminent whilst U.S markets were closed for Presidents Day.
# Crude Oil prices jumped to 9 month highs (WTI at US$104 and Brent at US$120) on a combination of improved risk appetite and news that Iran has cut off oil exports to Britain and France.
Ahead
# The E.U. finance ministers meeting is expected to deliver an announcement on the second Greek bailout package (possibly around noon NZ time).
# RBNZ survey of inflation expectations
# RBA minutes from their Feb meeting
# Speech by RBA Governor Stevens
Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities
Overnight Points of Interest
2012 February 19 by Graham Parlane
Overnight
# China eased monetary policy by lowering the RRR (reserve ratio requirements). That is,cutting the amount of security banks need to hold at any one time, thus freeing up funds to lend.
# January US inflation figures surprised on the upside at 2.9%y/y vs. 2.8% expected.
# The U.S. Conference Board reported Friday that its index of leading economic indicators in January increased for the fourth consecutive month
# The Dow Jones Index hit levels not seen since mid-2008 (similarly the broader S&P stopped just short of 4 year highs).
# On Saturday the Greek parliament passed the extra austerity measures required by the EU to gain access to more bailout cash. The ball is now in the court of the European finance ministers, who meet tonight.
# Reports surfaced that the European Central Bank did indeed exchange Greek bonds for fresh Eurobonds Friday.
Ahead
# Q4 producer prices
# Japan trade balance
# U.S. Presidents Day – a partial financial markets holiday
Edge Capital Markets Limited, a specialist advisor in Futures – FX – CFD – Options – Shares – Gold – Silver – Commodities