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Viewing entries tagged with 'Broker'
NZ GDP Comment
All
I thought this line from Dominick Stephens, Chief Economist, Westpac, is potentially very telling.
| ”New Zealand is going into a bulge of stronger GDP growth |
| fuelled by the Christchurch rebuild. It won’t be sustained in |
| the long term, but it’s got a wee while to run yet before the |
| rebuild peaks in 2014/2015. |
I’m very bullish on the NZD’s prospects against all comers.
A seasoned Corporate Treasurer I know well went to a presentation by the RBNZ two weeks ago, and the takeaway from that was, the RBNZ’s believe the export sector is actually holding up very well in the face of current exchange rates. Further, the treasurer said that the RBNZ’s message was consistent with the anecdotes he was hearing from around the country as well. Now the GDP data confirms.
Given the 3 year bulge of growth that the Christchurch rebuild will add, NZ data is going to look very different from the rest of the developed world for quite some time.
Anyone for NZD/AUD at 0.8800, NZD/JPY at 100 ?
Don’t let your thoughts be bogged down by old norms.
G.
NZD/USD - Doing all the right things
All
I have a technical suite of indicators that I follow very systematically these days. Within my recipe the NZD/USD has been absolutely PERFECT today.
Fig 1 – NZD/USD Daily chart. Kiwi broke the 1 year consolidation triangle back on 11 Sept., rose, and has been consolidating since.
NZDUSD Daily – Click here to view chart
Fig 2 – Short term NZD/USD chart. Shows a perfect ‘strong GDP’ inspired outside range up hour, right out of my proprietary model. PERFECT!
Short term NZDUSD – Click here to view chart
Trade is to be long of NZD/USD with a stop loss at 0.8225
THIS IS AN OUTSTANDING OPPORTUNITY IN MY MIND. NZD/USD to 0.9000 anyone?……there’s this little fundamental thing going on called QE3 (QE Infinity) that might just weaken the USD.
Cheers G.
USD/JPY - this time it's different!
Good morning
A number of factors cropped up last week that have me thinking USD/JPY may have put in a medium term low.
For a very long time now the JPY has seemingly defied all predictions, continuing to strengthen in the face of some very serious underlying Japanese economic malaise. One of the factors, apart from supposed ‘safe haven’ JPY buying (to be fair I’ve never understood that particular concept with regard to the JPY) which may have caught the market out in the last year or so may have been the boost the Japanese economy received from activity surrounding the Tsunami clean up.
Anyway, things look a little different to me now in the wake of the FED decision of last week. The USD/JPY has long been highly correlated with movements in medium term U.S. interest rates. Last week they rose. It’s my belief that if forthcoming U.S economic data comes in ‘good to solid’ going forward then the market is going to fret that the FED may potentially overinflate the economy and thus will drive medium term rates higher. That’s a definite positive for USD/JPY.
Turning to technical factors a couple of charts support my case.
Fig 1 – Weekly USD/JPY. The base case. Remember my chart of the 5 year downtrend being broken earlier in the year?
USDJPY – Click here to view chart
Fig 2 – USD/JPY Weekly. A closer look. A potential reversal week in the form of a ‘doji’ where USD/JPY tried to fall but ended up being strongly repulsed from the lows. This indicates solid buying demand and a higher close to this week should confirm the case.
USDJPY a Closer Look – Click here to view chart
Fig 3 – Chart of Honda v USD/JPY (sourced from the Gartman Letter). This highly correlated overlay suggests that USD/JPY should be higher (or Honda lower of course!).
Honda and USDJPY – click here to view chart
Lastly, market chatter on Friday had it that the BOJ was checking rates. Now this is a common enough occurrence and doesn’t mean that the BOJ will intervene but I can tell you that intervention doesn’t occur WITHOUT the BOJ first checking rates !
Regards G.
Chart of interest - Apple Inc
All
Interestingly it was a VERY poor day for Apple Inc. shares ahead of the expected Sept 12th iPhone 5 release. This is the first major release without Steve Jobs at the helm.
The chart displays a simple ‘key day reversal’ from new highs. Those sceptical of the current Apple Inc. valuation have a lovely clear trading opportunity given the chart signal and impending announcement.
Apple Inc – Click here to view chart
Cheers G.
Silver Trader - he's back!
Hi
Longstanding clients will of course know the story of the epic run in Silver that this trader had with us between Sep 2009 and May 2010. There has been no better client trade in my 11 years here.
Interestingly he appeared back on the radar last week buying 4 tranches of Silver over the course of the week. Then came Friday’s Jackson Hole announcement and well, as the youngsters say,……..Boom!
I must say the chart looks pretty damn attractive and if PIMCO’s Bill Gross believes that the FED WILL ACT at their next meeting (today he said they will) then that’s good enough for me. Gold and Silver have been the biggest beneficiaries of the FED’s programs in the past. Can we dare to believe that Gold and Silver are destined for new highs?
1) Weekly long term chart of Silver. Multiyear triangle consolidation now broken. (Gold looks very much the same)
Silver weekly long term chart – click here to view
2) Daily chart. A closer look at Friday’s action. A technically gorgeous jump off the 10/20 day m.a. band (coincided with my short term model too…) after breaking, then retesting the break, of the mega triangle earlier in the week. Bollingers have splayed and will now make a nice channel higher.
Silver daily chart – click here to view
The precious metals just look irresistible right now and are likely the only store of value as we approach what looks like a renewed, and somewhat co-ordinated, global central bank monetary easing campaign (read ECB, FED and probably China too over the next few weeks).
We are specialists in risk management and good broking practice. Call for suggestions on appropriate sized trades for your risk capital.
G.
Time to sell crude oil?
All
Simple thesis here.
1) The world’s economic growth is clearly slowing as evidenced by the last 12 months manufacturing index results.
Just look at the trend of the GDP forecasts below…simply a constant series of downgrades.
Bloomberg GDP forecasts – click here to view chart
2) Supply increasing – This little titbit from The Gartman Letter showing how over time market prices dictate outcomes. That is, the old adage that “the cure for high prices is high prices” in as much as high prices ultimately stimulate increased production which in turn brings down prices.
The Gartman Letter extract – click here to view
Looking directly at the Crude chart there is the suggestion that Crude prices are beginning to roll over from the classic Fibo retracement of 61.8% of the last down move.
Crude Oil – click here to view chart
Putting all of the above together the suggestion would be that slowing global demand combined with increased global production has the potential to send crude prices much lower.
US$60.00 anyone?
Regards G.
AUD vulnerable?
All
Last week, when detailing my NZDAUD thoughts, I suggested that the AUD was vulnerable due to the market being ‘long’. I posited that the AUD had long been a beneficiary of incoming flows due to its AAA rating, relatively high interest rates and proximity to one of the few engines of global growth being China (read resources boom).
Thus this morning I was pleased to see that the official IMM positioning data confirmed my thoughts as per below
G.
BUZZ-IMM spec AUD longs 4th highest on record
Aug 26 8:20am
- IMM spec data helps explain EUR/AUD squeeze as AUD longs rose further
- AUD longs up 20,203 to 86,992, takes them to 4th highest ever in Aug 21 week
- Suggests there may be more room for squeeze, though trend may be tiring
- EUR shorts trimmed slightly to 123,932, GBP flips long for 1st time in 3 mths
- Net USD long vs G10 halved to USD 3.24 bln from 7.69 bln
- IMM spec data in charts: http://r.reuters.com/taf29s
Gold - time to re-enter longs
All
Gold has been somewhat out of the market focus in recent months. Indeed, the views that have been coming across the wires have largely been of the bearish variety, which is a huge turnaround from the sentiment prevailing over the last 5/7 years.
If we view Gold from the context of being the 3rd currency, rather than a commodity, then the case for owning Gold over EUR and USD is once again strong. Euroland continues to be fraught with danger whilst the recent upswing in U.S. data earlier in the year appears to be fizzling out.
So under the umbrella of the old contrarian market quote “when they’re yelling you should be selling and when they’re crying you should be buying” I’m suggesting buying Gold here and now.
The charts as I interpret them look quite compelling.
Fig 1 – Gold weekly Chart. Bullish reversal week where Gold pushed lower than the previous week but ended above the same week. Typically a sign of significant buying pressure.
Gold Weekly Chart – click here to view
Fig 2 – Gold daily Chart. In 3 of the last 8 trading days Gold has looked to push lower only to rebound and finish on its highs. Again this is typically a sign that the sellers have run into significant buying interest.
Gold Daily Chart – click here to view
Fig 3 – Gold Hourly Chart. Overnight an unusual selling event occurred in the Gold market which culminated in a brief trading halt on the Comex Exchange (see article pasted below). Interestingly the sharp selloff stopped at my (BRILLIANTLY PERFORMING !!!!) proprietary model which is pushing up, suggesting to me that Gold is indeed building a base here for higher.
Gold Hourly Chart – click here to view
DJ CME Group: Gold’s Slide Triggered Brief Trading Halt
By Tatyana Shumsky
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–CME Group Inc. (CME) instigated a brief trading halt in gold futures Monday morning amid a violent downdraft in gold prices, the exchange told Dow Jones Newswires.
A so-called Stop Logic trading halt kicked in at 8:31 a.m. Monday, pausing trade in the Comex June-delivery gold contract for 10 seconds, a CME spokesman said.
“The market is given a short period to recalibrate and in this instant it was for 10 seconds,” he said.
“It only happened in gold futures, in the June gold contract,” the spokesman added.
Gold prices fell around $15 in that minute of trading, as 7,500 gold futures contracts worth around $1.24 billion changed hands.
Stop Logic is software which detects when market movement triggers stop-price orders and introduces a short pause in order matching, according to CME’s website. This means that buyers and sellers can continue to enter their bids and asks into CME’s systems, but these orders won’t be cross-matched and won’t result in any trades.
-By Tatyana Shumsky, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-3095; tatyana.shumsky@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 30, 2012 15:43 ET (19:43 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Tuesday 01 May 2012 05:43:00.000 AEST
There are two significant supports close at hand providing very good risk/reward setups for those with an inherently bullish view on Gold. Those interested should call in so that we can tailor a trade to your personal needs.
Regards Graham
Gold & Silver
All
I have had a bearish view of Gold and Silver recently. With that in mind I note Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter today.
Firstly regarding the metals traded on the CME, margins are to be cut for Silver, Copper and Palladium as of the close of trading today (overnight). The announcement came last week and normally this would be a reason to take metals prices higher. Instead, prices are weaker, and markets that do not respond to bullish news are not bullish. It is at times that simple and in this case very so. All things being equal, a cut in margin requirements, even a modest one, is bullish although cuts are not nearly as bullish as increases are bearish. Nonetheless here is a demonstrably bullish bit of news and the market’s reaction is manifestly bearish.
In layman’s terms the suggestion here is that if you are bullish of say Gold and the margin is cut allowing you room on your account to buy more then you would do so. To not buy more suggests the bullish view is at best weak, and at worst no longer in favour.
Regards G.
USD Pairs - an intriguing week
All
I used the term ‘intriguing’ in my headline but I could just as easily substituted ‘nasty’. My sell recommendation in the AUD/USD was in the money by 100 points the very next day but two days later the AUD/USD was 220 points higher. Only the nimble made money.
Overnight the world seemed to go mad on embracing ‘risk’ but the world economies that I read about look decidedly troubled. Personally I am a bear on global growth which is suggestive of equities going lower and presumably ‘risk’ being shunned. However the charts as I interpret them do not support my view for the moment. That leaves me side-lined.
A few charts of interest that I am watching.
Dow Jones Index – I interpret this chart as the beginnings of a new bear market. The 7 month up-trend has been broken and the rally of the last two days I believe is just a re-test of the break down. Also bear markets are noted for their volatility and where you can see the grinding nature of the last few months up, the latest moves have been very ‘noisy’ (big down, big up).
Dow Jones – click here to view chart
NZD/USD – The kiwi is historically VERY highly correlated to the performance of U.S. shares. And yet this chart absolutely contradicts my equity market view right now. Right now, if the kiwi closes the week above 0.8261 then a ‘bullish engulfing week’ would be suggestive of higher ahead.
NZDUSD – click here to view chart
Not only is the kiwi showing ‘bull’ signals but EUR, AUD, GBP, Gold and Silver are all displaying positive signs on my short term models. Usually I’d just follow them but for some reason I can’t shake the ugly feel I get from reading about the prevailing fundamentals.
Personally I’ll be sitting the week out and looking for more clues come Monday.
Regards G.
