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Viewing entries tagged with 'Copper'
Charts of Interest - Copper & the USD Index
All
In the wake of the FED’s FOMC announcement this morning these charts bear close scrutiny.
The FED have pledged to keep the money spigots wide open, to pay for their US$85 bio per month of various securities purchases, until the labour market improves to 6.5% unemployed goal. i.e. the song remains the same.
We know that the majority of data from around the world, last night’s U.S. GDP excepted, has been strongly on the improve lately so is Dr. Copper (recall Gartman says it has a PHD in economics), ready to break higher just as the USD Index drops below support?
Copper / USD Index – click here to view chart
With the EUR/USD rampaging higher, Gold and Silver again looking strong I suspect these support/resistance areas will be broken in due course and create very tradable moves.
Regards G
Hopeful for Gold and Silver
All
Recently Gold and Silver have been bucking the trend of a weaker USD, failing to rise despite the moves up in NZD, AUD, EUR and Copper etc.
I find this action rather strange given the background of the FED’s supportive action but you never know if, say for example, the IMF are selling Gold to send bailout money somewhere or if a large gold miner has to put on a hedge due to their treasury policy.
So with the above situation I have been stalking a reason to resume being long Gold and Silver. The action overnight hints that the precious metals may be worth a buy here with stop loss orders below the overnight lows.
1) Gold daily – recall the big picture. Gold has been in a brilliant uptrend since 2001 and in August broke higher out of a multi-year consolidation triangle
Gold Daily – click here to view chart
A closer look at Gold – support apparent now at the overnight low
A Closer Look – click here to view chart
2) Silver has a number of similar technical attributes including stopping at the important Fibonacci number, 61.8% decline of the last rise. Also Silver probed below, but closed above, the 4 month major trend line support.
Silver – click here to view chart
Cheers G.
Stunning Gold Chart - Gold on the Cusp of a Strong Rally?
All
For a very long time Gold has been considered a commodity, however since the GFC and the massive money printing conducted by the world’s central banks, the modern view is to consider Gold as money i.e. that classic store of value when everything around it is being debased. To whit Gold has been rising steadily as Copper (the Dr with the PHD in Industrial Activity) has been declining just as steadily.
Given that Gold was one of the main beneficiaries of the first few rounds of QE and the world’s central banks have again, over the last few months, embarked on another easing frenzy one could expect that Gold will begin to rise again.
In that context this long term chart of Gold, as measured against its 55 week moving average, makes for very interesting reading.
Since the 2001 low of US$255.00 oz the 55 week moving average has done a simply amazing job of defining the major trend. Now the recent sharp drop to US$1.672 oz very much looks like the low made in April 2009 before Gold embarked on a massive 122% rise. (This was the same period that my Mr Silverballs rode NZ$1,500 to NZ$1,000,000 in Silver using the leveraging capabilities of the BBY Online system).
Further hardening my resolve that Gold may be on the cusp of another strong rise after a 13 month consolidation, the weekly bounce off the 55 week m.a. was a ‘bullish engulfing week’.
Chart 1 – The 55 week m.a. documented.
55 m.a. – Click here to view chart
Chart 2 – A closer look at the recent bounce.
A closer look – Click here to view chart
I think that this could be one of those very rare occasions where an truly stunning opportunity exists. I have multiple ideas on how to capture any ensuing move should you be interested.
Cheers G.
Markets littered with reversal signals
All
I am a bear.
Thus I believe this week’s upswing in markets has simply been a correction against the prevailing trend. In that case these daily chart patterns interest me hugely.
S&P500 – Opened on the lows, rallied nicely and closed smack bang down where it started. Suggests good selling pressure resides above current levels. Tonight’s action will be key.
S&P 500 – Click here to view chart
Copper (Dr Copper that is!) – Big range , opening and closing where it started. Reeks of uncertainty. Watch the next day for confirmation.
Copper – Click here to view chart
AUD/USD – Finished lower than where it started the day despite the outstanding local news. Not a good sign.
AUD/USD – Click here to view chart
Cheers
G.
Dr Copper - Another clue
All
Since my piece of last week ‘Watershed USD strength – digging deeper into the FED speak’ market action has been somewhat mixed with the long standing relationship between a soft USD and stronger global share markets breaking down. So what is going on?
One clue could be the performance of industry integral, base metal, Copper (or Dr Copper, PHD as Gartman likes to refer to it). The following chart documents the rather large 6.2% fall last week.
The fall suggests traders see slowing global demand (and less scope for a growth supportive U.S FED?). This should be a poor sign for the likes of NZD/USD and AUD/USD with AUD and Copper being very highly correlated over the years.
G.
