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Viewing entries tagged with 'EURAUD'
AUD vulnerable?
All
Last week, when detailing my NZDAUD thoughts, I suggested that the AUD was vulnerable due to the market being ‘long’. I posited that the AUD had long been a beneficiary of incoming flows due to its AAA rating, relatively high interest rates and proximity to one of the few engines of global growth being China (read resources boom).
Thus this morning I was pleased to see that the official IMM positioning data confirmed my thoughts as per below
G.
BUZZ-IMM spec AUD longs 4th highest on record
Aug 26 8:20am
- IMM spec data helps explain EUR/AUD squeeze as AUD longs rose further
- AUD longs up 20,203 to 86,992, takes them to 4th highest ever in Aug 21 week
- Suggests there may be more room for squeeze, though trend may be tiring
- EUR shorts trimmed slightly to 123,932, GBP flips long for 1st time in 3 mths
- Net USD long vs G10 halved to USD 3.24 bln from 7.69 bln
- IMM spec data in charts: http://r.reuters.com/taf29s
Charts of interest - EUR Complex
All
A very interesting development in the EUR currency complex overnight. Despite the obvious turmoil in Europe and the Moody’s ‘outlook negative’ ratings change for Germany the EUR has hung very tough. Could Putin’s reaffirmation of the Eurozone as an investment destination have been a catalyst (surely not enough on its own?) or has the EUR bashing simply reached a zenith for now?
Whatever the reasons the chart displays are warning of a change.
Exhibit 1 – The EUR/USD. Despite extreme bear news the EUR/USD is displaying caution in the down move.
EURUSD – click here to view chart
Exhibit 2 – The EUR/AUD. The pair has been trending lower for 1300 points in almost a straight line. However, in potential confirmation of the EUR/USD chart above, the EUR has traced out a key day reversal against the AUD. The two chart developments together strengthen the idea that EUR selling may be exhausted.
EURAUD – click here to view chart
I’ll be buying a dip in the EUR/AUD with a stop loss against the low and watching the next 24 hours for confirmation of the EUR/USD doji.
Regards G.
Update - EUR/AUD - Another look
The option strategies profiled on 9 February (below) have performed excellently. Indeed, I had a number of clients try to express this view in ‘spot’ only to get knocked out with small profits in amongst the early two way chop before the cross took off. Guys with 3 month option strategies are up about 150% on investment at the moment.
Sent: Thursday, 9 February 2012, 12:58pm
Subject: EUR/AUD – another look (buy call option)
Hi again
I have just been exploring other ways to capture this trade as I am very upbeat that Greece will come up with the goods in the next few days. Greece has come this far that it is unlikely to cock things up now especially now that the country is governed by non-politician in Lucas Papademos, a Greek economist who was previously Governor of the Bank of Greece from 1994 – 2002.
His appointment has largely taken the political ‘conflict of interest’ (not having to be re-elected) out of the way. Indeed all the charts, be it EUR/JPY, EUR/USD or EURAUD all scream that the smart guys understand the likely outcome of the PSI negotiations.
A 1 month EUR/AUD ‘at the money’ call option is ridiculously cheap in my opinion at 0.0175 points. The cross went up that far on Tuesday alone, let alone having the opportunity for gains over 1 month.
Look at the long term chart of the levels needed to profit (I’ll expand it on the 2nd chart).
EURAUD Chart – click here to view
A closer look shows that the average move per month over the last 3 months has been about 600 points (premium in this case 175 points) and we know the EUR market is terribly short.
EURAUD Chart Expanded – click here to view
If Greece defaults you have no further risk that your premium paid, no slippage, no surprises.
Regards G.
