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Viewing entries tagged with 'Precious Metals'
EUR poised for higher
All
Base case is that the (almost co-ordinated) central bank actions of the last few weeks support the market like the previous QE programs have.
Under that scenario we would then expect to see ‘risk’ higher.
EUR/USD moved strongly higher in anticipation of the FED and ECB programs so I view this 8 day pull back since the announcement as nothing more than a profit taking correction (buy the rumour, sell the fact).
Yesterday the EUR/USD appears to have reversed (key day reversal – lower low, higher high and close) and the 8 day gentle downtrend appears to have been broken to the top side.
This should be an important indicator for all pairs against USD suggestive that we will see NZD, AUD, GBP, Gold and Silver all (significantly?) higher in coming weeks.
Fig 1 – Daily EUR/USD chart
Daily EURUSD chart – click here to view
Fig 2 – A closer look at the downtrend line via the hourly chart
Hourly EURUSD Chart – click here to view
The last confirming level to cement my view will be if/when the EUR/USD lifts above my model level which is currently falling mildly at 1.2965.
Cheers G.
Silver Trader - he's back!
Hi
Longstanding clients will of course know the story of the epic run in Silver that this trader had with us between Sep 2009 and May 2010. There has been no better client trade in my 11 years here.
Interestingly he appeared back on the radar last week buying 4 tranches of Silver over the course of the week. Then came Friday’s Jackson Hole announcement and well, as the youngsters say,……..Boom!
I must say the chart looks pretty damn attractive and if PIMCO’s Bill Gross believes that the FED WILL ACT at their next meeting (today he said they will) then that’s good enough for me. Gold and Silver have been the biggest beneficiaries of the FED’s programs in the past. Can we dare to believe that Gold and Silver are destined for new highs?
1) Weekly long term chart of Silver. Multiyear triangle consolidation now broken. (Gold looks very much the same)
Silver weekly long term chart – click here to view
2) Daily chart. A closer look at Friday’s action. A technically gorgeous jump off the 10/20 day m.a. band (coincided with my short term model too…) after breaking, then retesting the break, of the mega triangle earlier in the week. Bollingers have splayed and will now make a nice channel higher.
Silver daily chart – click here to view
The precious metals just look irresistible right now and are likely the only store of value as we approach what looks like a renewed, and somewhat co-ordinated, global central bank monetary easing campaign (read ECB, FED and probably China too over the next few weeks).
We are specialists in risk management and good broking practice. Call for suggestions on appropriate sized trades for your risk capital.
G.
Gold - time to re-enter longs
All
Gold has been somewhat out of the market focus in recent months. Indeed, the views that have been coming across the wires have largely been of the bearish variety, which is a huge turnaround from the sentiment prevailing over the last 5/7 years.
If we view Gold from the context of being the 3rd currency, rather than a commodity, then the case for owning Gold over EUR and USD is once again strong. Euroland continues to be fraught with danger whilst the recent upswing in U.S. data earlier in the year appears to be fizzling out.
So under the umbrella of the old contrarian market quote “when they’re yelling you should be selling and when they’re crying you should be buying” I’m suggesting buying Gold here and now.
The charts as I interpret them look quite compelling.
Fig 1 – Gold weekly Chart. Bullish reversal week where Gold pushed lower than the previous week but ended above the same week. Typically a sign of significant buying pressure.
Gold Weekly Chart – click here to view
Fig 2 – Gold daily Chart. In 3 of the last 8 trading days Gold has looked to push lower only to rebound and finish on its highs. Again this is typically a sign that the sellers have run into significant buying interest.
Gold Daily Chart – click here to view
Fig 3 – Gold Hourly Chart. Overnight an unusual selling event occurred in the Gold market which culminated in a brief trading halt on the Comex Exchange (see article pasted below). Interestingly the sharp selloff stopped at my (BRILLIANTLY PERFORMING !!!!) proprietary model which is pushing up, suggesting to me that Gold is indeed building a base here for higher.
Gold Hourly Chart – click here to view
DJ CME Group: Gold’s Slide Triggered Brief Trading Halt
By Tatyana Shumsky
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–CME Group Inc. (CME) instigated a brief trading halt in gold futures Monday morning amid a violent downdraft in gold prices, the exchange told Dow Jones Newswires.
A so-called Stop Logic trading halt kicked in at 8:31 a.m. Monday, pausing trade in the Comex June-delivery gold contract for 10 seconds, a CME spokesman said.
“The market is given a short period to recalibrate and in this instant it was for 10 seconds,” he said.
“It only happened in gold futures, in the June gold contract,” the spokesman added.
Gold prices fell around $15 in that minute of trading, as 7,500 gold futures contracts worth around $1.24 billion changed hands.
Stop Logic is software which detects when market movement triggers stop-price orders and introduces a short pause in order matching, according to CME’s website. This means that buyers and sellers can continue to enter their bids and asks into CME’s systems, but these orders won’t be cross-matched and won’t result in any trades.
-By Tatyana Shumsky, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-3095; tatyana.shumsky@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 30, 2012 15:43 ET (19:43 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Tuesday 01 May 2012 05:43:00.000 AEST
There are two significant supports close at hand providing very good risk/reward setups for those with an inherently bullish view on Gold. Those interested should call in so that we can tailor a trade to your personal needs.
Regards Graham
Gold & Silver
All
I have had a bearish view of Gold and Silver recently. With that in mind I note Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter today.
Firstly regarding the metals traded on the CME, margins are to be cut for Silver, Copper and Palladium as of the close of trading today (overnight). The announcement came last week and normally this would be a reason to take metals prices higher. Instead, prices are weaker, and markets that do not respond to bullish news are not bullish. It is at times that simple and in this case very so. All things being equal, a cut in margin requirements, even a modest one, is bullish although cuts are not nearly as bullish as increases are bearish. Nonetheless here is a demonstrably bullish bit of news and the market’s reaction is manifestly bearish.
In layman’s terms the suggestion here is that if you are bullish of say Gold and the margin is cut allowing you room on your account to buy more then you would do so. To not buy more suggests the bullish view is at best weak, and at worst no longer in favour.
Regards G.
USD Pairs - an intriguing week
All
I used the term ‘intriguing’ in my headline but I could just as easily substituted ‘nasty’. My sell recommendation in the AUD/USD was in the money by 100 points the very next day but two days later the AUD/USD was 220 points higher. Only the nimble made money.
Overnight the world seemed to go mad on embracing ‘risk’ but the world economies that I read about look decidedly troubled. Personally I am a bear on global growth which is suggestive of equities going lower and presumably ‘risk’ being shunned. However the charts as I interpret them do not support my view for the moment. That leaves me side-lined.
A few charts of interest that I am watching.
Dow Jones Index – I interpret this chart as the beginnings of a new bear market. The 7 month up-trend has been broken and the rally of the last two days I believe is just a re-test of the break down. Also bear markets are noted for their volatility and where you can see the grinding nature of the last few months up, the latest moves have been very ‘noisy’ (big down, big up).
Dow Jones – click here to view chart
NZD/USD – The kiwi is historically VERY highly correlated to the performance of U.S. shares. And yet this chart absolutely contradicts my equity market view right now. Right now, if the kiwi closes the week above 0.8261 then a ‘bullish engulfing week’ would be suggestive of higher ahead.
NZDUSD – click here to view chart
Not only is the kiwi showing ‘bull’ signals but EUR, AUD, GBP, Gold and Silver are all displaying positive signs on my short term models. Usually I’d just follow them but for some reason I can’t shake the ugly feel I get from reading about the prevailing fundamentals.
Personally I’ll be sitting the week out and looking for more clues come Monday.
Regards G.
USD Pairs - an intriguing week (part 2)
All
Friday’s price action is highly suggestive that my preferred ‘negative equities –slowing global growth’ theme (see below previously) is the prevailing wind. I’m suggesting selling EUR/USD here and now with sell signals in NZD,AUD, Gold and Silver very close at hand.
Technically if you look at the ‘risk’ complex they are all very ‘trend ready’……………..that is they have been confined to very narrow ranges (and thus very narrow Bollinger Bands) for a month or so and that is typically where the best moves spring from.
NZD/USD
NZDUSD – Click here to view chart
EUR/USD
EURUSD – Click here to view chart
Gold and Silver look on the edge of the precipice too with a move through last week’s lows likely to be a precursor to substantial falls.
Regards G.
Another confirming factor for USD weakness
We are seeing USD weakness prevalent everywhere right now. Gold and Silver moving strongly higher, EUR at 4 month highs, NZD and AUD pushing at the top of 1 month consolidations. In Asia earlier today we saw SGD (Singapore Dollar) gap higher and now this news on China
SYDNEY, Feb 29 (IFR) – The PBOC has set USD/CNY today at 6.2919, the lowest level (or highest yuan value) since the 2005 revaluation
This feels to me like the 2010 when I often noted “if it’s not one thing making new highs against the USD then it’s another”.
