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Money Matters
- New Account - Physical Gold & Silver
- Natural Gas - Price ready to explode?
- EUR poised for higher
- NZD/USD - Doing all the right things
- USD/JPY - this time it's different!
- Silver Trader - he's back!
- AUD vulnerable?
- NZD/EUR & AUD/EUR - The Draghi Put
- Charts of interest - EUR Complex
- Bullish failure?
- View archive...
Money Matters
Viewing entries tagged with 'US'
New Account - Physical Gold & Silver
Hello
We have been asked by a number of you to see if we can locate a physical precious metals product, to enable you to add physical gold or silver to your portfolio, alongside the gold and silver CFD account we currently provide.
It is with great pleasure that I am able to announce that through one of our counterparties we have been able to do this.
Prior to offering this facility to our clients we wanted to do some due diligence to ensure it was competitive and answered a lot of the questions posed to us when asked to locate such a product. Precise details are set out in the account terms and conditions available to you on enquiry.
Please find responses to some of your questions below:
Q: Can I take delivery of the gold or silver if I want to?
A: Yes, we can purchase gold and silver for delivery through this account.
Q: What is the min transaction size?
A: US$10,000
Q: How competitive is the pricing?
A: Through what is publicly available we have determined that the buy/sell spreads are tighter than mints throughout Australasia, but not as tight as the CFD product.
Q: Is my gold/silver stored outside the banking system?
A: Yes, the bullion is stored at non-bank vaults, and can be bought and stored in a non US location.
Q: Is the bullion held against my own name?
A: You have a direct beneficial interest in the gold. For purchases over US$1m, the gold is held directly in your name, under this amount it is held on your behalf by our counterparty at their account at the vault.
Q: Is my holding pooled with others?
A: No, the holding is allocated, not pooled.
Q: Are there any ongoing fees and what do they include?
A: Yes, there is a 0.95% annual fee charged monthly. This covers Storage, Transport, Insurance and a quarterly audit fee.
These were some of the key questions you asked. This link profiles the product in more detail - Click Here .
If you wish to open a Portfolio account with us to buy and sell precious metals, or would like a copy of the account terms, please contact us on 0800 874 266.
We thank you for your ongoing business, and will keep looking for new product to provide to our advisory clients.
Regards,
Bryn
Natural Gas - Price ready to explode?
All
Natural Gas prices have been so low (12 year lows) that many drilling operations have been suspended at a time where much of the United States heavy industry is moving toward converting their energy needs to gas based.
Many analysts have been scratching their heads at the lack of upside in gas prices given that so many conversions to gas are on-going.
Scratch heads no more, natural gas prices look ready to explode (pun intended).
Here is a 10 year chart of weekly Nat Gas. The potential for vastly higher prices is obvious.
Natural Gas Weekly – click here to view chart
A closer look at the recent price action is enlightening. A series of higher weekly lows, a doji rejection of lower levels 5 weeks ago followed by a bullish engulfing week 2 weeks later then the sharp jump on Monday. The charts are crammed with bullish signals.
Natural Gas A Closer Look – click here to view chart
Feel free to call in for further details on trading this commodity.
G.
EUR poised for higher
All
Base case is that the (almost co-ordinated) central bank actions of the last few weeks support the market like the previous QE programs have.
Under that scenario we would then expect to see ‘risk’ higher.
EUR/USD moved strongly higher in anticipation of the FED and ECB programs so I view this 8 day pull back since the announcement as nothing more than a profit taking correction (buy the rumour, sell the fact).
Yesterday the EUR/USD appears to have reversed (key day reversal – lower low, higher high and close) and the 8 day gentle downtrend appears to have been broken to the top side.
This should be an important indicator for all pairs against USD suggestive that we will see NZD, AUD, GBP, Gold and Silver all (significantly?) higher in coming weeks.
Fig 1 – Daily EUR/USD chart
Daily EURUSD chart – click here to view
Fig 2 – A closer look at the downtrend line via the hourly chart
Hourly EURUSD Chart – click here to view
The last confirming level to cement my view will be if/when the EUR/USD lifts above my model level which is currently falling mildly at 1.2965.
Cheers G.
NZD/USD - Doing all the right things
All
I have a technical suite of indicators that I follow very systematically these days. Within my recipe the NZD/USD has been absolutely PERFECT today.
Fig 1 – NZD/USD Daily chart. Kiwi broke the 1 year consolidation triangle back on 11 Sept., rose, and has been consolidating since.
NZDUSD Daily – Click here to view chart
Fig 2 – Short term NZD/USD chart. Shows a perfect ‘strong GDP’ inspired outside range up hour, right out of my proprietary model. PERFECT!
Short term NZDUSD – Click here to view chart
Trade is to be long of NZD/USD with a stop loss at 0.8225
THIS IS AN OUTSTANDING OPPORTUNITY IN MY MIND. NZD/USD to 0.9000 anyone?……there’s this little fundamental thing going on called QE3 (QE Infinity) that might just weaken the USD.
Cheers G.
USD/JPY - this time it's different!
Good morning
A number of factors cropped up last week that have me thinking USD/JPY may have put in a medium term low.
For a very long time now the JPY has seemingly defied all predictions, continuing to strengthen in the face of some very serious underlying Japanese economic malaise. One of the factors, apart from supposed ‘safe haven’ JPY buying (to be fair I’ve never understood that particular concept with regard to the JPY) which may have caught the market out in the last year or so may have been the boost the Japanese economy received from activity surrounding the Tsunami clean up.
Anyway, things look a little different to me now in the wake of the FED decision of last week. The USD/JPY has long been highly correlated with movements in medium term U.S. interest rates. Last week they rose. It’s my belief that if forthcoming U.S economic data comes in ‘good to solid’ going forward then the market is going to fret that the FED may potentially overinflate the economy and thus will drive medium term rates higher. That’s a definite positive for USD/JPY.
Turning to technical factors a couple of charts support my case.
Fig 1 – Weekly USD/JPY. The base case. Remember my chart of the 5 year downtrend being broken earlier in the year?
USDJPY – Click here to view chart
Fig 2 – USD/JPY Weekly. A closer look. A potential reversal week in the form of a ‘doji’ where USD/JPY tried to fall but ended up being strongly repulsed from the lows. This indicates solid buying demand and a higher close to this week should confirm the case.
USDJPY a Closer Look – Click here to view chart
Fig 3 – Chart of Honda v USD/JPY (sourced from the Gartman Letter). This highly correlated overlay suggests that USD/JPY should be higher (or Honda lower of course!).
Honda and USDJPY – click here to view chart
Lastly, market chatter on Friday had it that the BOJ was checking rates. Now this is a common enough occurrence and doesn’t mean that the BOJ will intervene but I can tell you that intervention doesn’t occur WITHOUT the BOJ first checking rates !
Regards G.
Silver Trader - he's back!
Hi
Longstanding clients will of course know the story of the epic run in Silver that this trader had with us between Sep 2009 and May 2010. There has been no better client trade in my 11 years here.
Interestingly he appeared back on the radar last week buying 4 tranches of Silver over the course of the week. Then came Friday’s Jackson Hole announcement and well, as the youngsters say,……..Boom!
I must say the chart looks pretty damn attractive and if PIMCO’s Bill Gross believes that the FED WILL ACT at their next meeting (today he said they will) then that’s good enough for me. Gold and Silver have been the biggest beneficiaries of the FED’s programs in the past. Can we dare to believe that Gold and Silver are destined for new highs?
1) Weekly long term chart of Silver. Multiyear triangle consolidation now broken. (Gold looks very much the same)
Silver weekly long term chart – click here to view
2) Daily chart. A closer look at Friday’s action. A technically gorgeous jump off the 10/20 day m.a. band (coincided with my short term model too…) after breaking, then retesting the break, of the mega triangle earlier in the week. Bollingers have splayed and will now make a nice channel higher.
Silver daily chart – click here to view
The precious metals just look irresistible right now and are likely the only store of value as we approach what looks like a renewed, and somewhat co-ordinated, global central bank monetary easing campaign (read ECB, FED and probably China too over the next few weeks).
We are specialists in risk management and good broking practice. Call for suggestions on appropriate sized trades for your risk capital.
G.
AUD vulnerable?
All
Last week, when detailing my NZDAUD thoughts, I suggested that the AUD was vulnerable due to the market being ‘long’. I posited that the AUD had long been a beneficiary of incoming flows due to its AAA rating, relatively high interest rates and proximity to one of the few engines of global growth being China (read resources boom).
Thus this morning I was pleased to see that the official IMM positioning data confirmed my thoughts as per below
G.
BUZZ-IMM spec AUD longs 4th highest on record
Aug 26 8:20am
- IMM spec data helps explain EUR/AUD squeeze as AUD longs rose further
- AUD longs up 20,203 to 86,992, takes them to 4th highest ever in Aug 21 week
- Suggests there may be more room for squeeze, though trend may be tiring
- EUR shorts trimmed slightly to 123,932, GBP flips long for 1st time in 3 mths
- Net USD long vs G10 halved to USD 3.24 bln from 7.69 bln
- IMM spec data in charts: http://r.reuters.com/taf29s
NZD/EUR & AUD/EUR - The Draghi Put
All
The NZD and AUD have been displaying ‘topping’ signals against the EUR as suggested in my piece of Wed 25th (NZD and AUD – Now the weakest?). Whilst I got the direction of the NZD/USD and AUD/USD spectacularly wrong, the NZD/EUR and AUD/EUR are still displaying all the hallmarks of being exhausted on their upside moves that have occurred over the last 2 ½ months.
With Mario Draghi’s stunning “ECB will do whatever it takes to preserve the euro”, adding, “believe me, it will be enough” comments I’d suggest that the drive to diversify into NZD and AUD will not be there in the near term. Further the EUR currency, given its bleak outlook and low interest rates had been used heavily as a funding currency for the ‘carry trade’. Now surely with these comments this flow will be reversed. In other words we now have the ‘Draghi Put’ where you can buy EUR knowing that the ECB ‘has your back’!!!!
Now the USD pairs have been very difficult of late, think risk on/risk off every other day, so these look like a lovely place to be in right now.
AUD/EUR – Made a ‘reversal’ day Monday after significant uptrend. Should be able to see 0.8300 even if this period only turns out to be a consolidation of the recent up move.
AUDEUR – click here to view chart
NZD/EUR displays very similar traits.
Regards Graham
Charts of interest - EUR Complex
All
A very interesting development in the EUR currency complex overnight. Despite the obvious turmoil in Europe and the Moody’s ‘outlook negative’ ratings change for Germany the EUR has hung very tough. Could Putin’s reaffirmation of the Eurozone as an investment destination have been a catalyst (surely not enough on its own?) or has the EUR bashing simply reached a zenith for now?
Whatever the reasons the chart displays are warning of a change.
Exhibit 1 – The EUR/USD. Despite extreme bear news the EUR/USD is displaying caution in the down move.
EURUSD – click here to view chart
Exhibit 2 – The EUR/AUD. The pair has been trending lower for 1300 points in almost a straight line. However, in potential confirmation of the EUR/USD chart above, the EUR has traced out a key day reversal against the AUD. The two chart developments together strengthen the idea that EUR selling may be exhausted.
EURAUD – click here to view chart
I’ll be buying a dip in the EUR/AUD with a stop loss against the low and watching the next 24 hours for confirmation of the EUR/USD doji.
Regards G.
Bullish failure?
All
Last week I reluctantly suggested that equity markets and ‘risk’ could turn north in response to the Eurozone developments of the previous week. Those thoughts were made on balancing weak data against the possibility of central bank responses which I thought would bolster sentiment.
However, after a week where we saw China surprise and cut interest rates, the UK expand their quantitative easing program and the ECB cut interest rates, global equity markets have failed to take solace from the central bank moves and ended last week lower than they started. The very weak global manufacturing PMI’s and the tepid U.S jobs report certainly overshadowed the stimulus moves. That, I’d imagine, is not a good sign.
In the wake of last week a number of ‘risk on’ instruments are displaying potential ‘topping’ signals.
NZD/USD – Dennis Gartman often likes to return to a trade in the 50%-61.8% box of the previous move. The NZD/USD in this instance traced out a ‘shooting star’ reversal week right from the 61.8% bounce of the last fall. No joy from central bank actions + sharply falling commodities (our dairy prices fell nearly 6% last week) suggest downside is again back in vogue. The AUD/USD is almost identical.
NZDUSD – Click here to view chart
S&P500 – The daily chart of the ‘big board’ in the U.S. paints a similar picture. Whilst the index stays under Thursday’s high the technicals look bearish.
S&P500 – Click here to view chart
There are two obvious game changers lurking in the background. Any certainty that the FED will come riding over the hill with QE3 will change the dynamic as will a wide ranging agreement from European policy makers. Until then it appears that the doom scenario may again hold sway.
G.
