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Viewing entries tagged with 'Unemployment'
Charts of Interest - Copper & the USD Index
All
In the wake of the FED’s FOMC announcement this morning these charts bear close scrutiny.
The FED have pledged to keep the money spigots wide open, to pay for their US$85 bio per month of various securities purchases, until the labour market improves to 6.5% unemployed goal. i.e. the song remains the same.
We know that the majority of data from around the world, last night’s U.S. GDP excepted, has been strongly on the improve lately so is Dr. Copper (recall Gartman says it has a PHD in economics), ready to break higher just as the USD Index drops below support?
Copper / USD Index – click here to view chart
With the EUR/USD rampaging higher, Gold and Silver again looking strong I suspect these support/resistance areas will be broken in due course and create very tradable moves.
Regards G
NZD/AUD - Sunk by back-to-back poor NZ data
All
I have been a fan of NZ’s prospects over that of Australia in recent times given the Canterbury rebuild and a number of droughts around the world keeping NZ’s soft commodity prices elevated compared to that of Australia’s hard commodities. The strategy has given a couple of nice runs higher to trade on the NZD/AUD cross but recent data has abruptly turned that around.
Today’s very weak Retail Sales data, coming hot on the heels of the shocking 13 year high in NZ Unemployment, may see built up long NZD/AUD positions liquidated in coming sessions.
My modelling analysis worked very well today capping the recent bounce in the cross at 0.7860 versus the model sitting at 0.7870/92. The model is splayed wide which is suggestive of a strong move underway and the readings are dropping very quickly. That means selling NZD/AUD around here may have its risk mitigated very quickly, say within 2/3 days.
NZDAUD – click here to view chart
The daily chart is suggestive of a forthcoming test of one year support at 0.7745. A break of that level could get very ugly indeed.
NZDAUD – click here to view chart two
No one expects that the RBNZ will need to cut because they think the boost from Canterbury will be ‘real’ in the RBNZ’s own words but if the world sinks a little again, we get another decent jolt delaying the rebuild.
Cheers G.
